Analytics 2017
On Kavkaz
On Kavkaz

Russia-Azerbaijan: a process under development

2017 January 22 ( Wednesday )  15:33:18
Русский Azərbaycan

Statement by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the Karabakh conflict is not an internal affair of Azerbaijan, has caused a stir in the Azerbaijani society. In the lower layers the response was defiant hard, but in the upper layers it was diplomatically critical. "The head of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had to come up with an adequate assessment of the current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict," softly said vice-speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament Bahar Muradova.

Subsequent chain of statements and comments that resembled a storm in a teacup provoked a correspondent of the Azerbaijani TV channel "Lider" in Moscow Anar Hasanov, by asking a question from the Foreign Minister in provocative side: " Will Moscow turn a blind eye, or will it interfere in Azerbaijan's internal affairs in the event of a counter-terrorist operation in the occupied territories and the removal of the occupation forces?” It is difficult to remember, that the official Baku has ever publicly addressed to Moscow with such a question. May be such a question on the reaction to such actions was asked in the corridors, but it has never been asked in the in the plane of non-interference in the internal affairs. The matter is that since the beginning of the conflict in the Soviet Union it has never been an internal affair of Azerbaijan -  first Baku appealed to the Federal Government, and then to the international group of mediators from the OSCE Minsk group, and finally, since 1993 the conflict was referred to the United Nations. Thus, Baku consciously, can be said forcibly, delegated its right to "internal affair» to the international community, which also receives various kinds of initiatives and manages the progress of the conflict settlement.

 Answering such a sharp question Lavrov has nothing to say, but making attempt to protect the face of power, which he represents, and in particular on the Karabakh talks. But we can assume that the sharp reaction by Lavrov, is backed up by broader interests, which are now being discussed  on
"It is no longer something abstract, is not only the subject of internal affairs of Azerbaijan." Sergey Lavrov
the results of 2016, when completed a cycle of five-year supply to Azerbaijan arms  amounting  $5 billion, and was also seen some decrease  in the $4 billion trade relations which  by 80 percent were in favor of Moscow. In favor of this interpretation is the statement of the current Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha last year, who qualified the incident on December 28 at the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as a provocation against OCTS-member, and consciously mentioned the name of Nagorno Karabakh as Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which irritated Azerbaijan.

It should also be noted that cautious in relations with official Baku Lavrov sharply opposed the extradition of the blogger Aleksandra Lapshin to Azerbaijan, who is also a citizen of Israel, Ukraine and the Russia. Baku accuses Lapshin of illegally visiting Nagorno Karabakh.

At the economic forum in Davos President Ilham Aliyev acknowledged the beginning of new round of talks with Russia on the supply of Russian defensive weapons to Azerbaijan. As is known, last year there were claims of Baku to Moscow for arms supplies, which apparently had a technical nature, but rather the Aliyev’s administration would like to get a better understanding of Moscow on the Karabakh issue in the light of a subsequent cycle of the supply of arms to Azerbaijan. During his visit to Azerbaijan on December 15 Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, likely  a consensus was reached, since he left Baku in a good mood, and  mentioned it in Twitter. But the current reactions of the foreign horn by Kremlin may mean that the parties have not reached a compromise on the format of "weapons in exchange for peace within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless,  taking into account long-term productive Russian-Azerbaijani relations,  in particular, after the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1994, which were marked by the growth of trade and investment on the one hand, and the positive progress in the Karabakh issue, on the other, it can be expected that the parallel process will be continued and developed.

Turan Analytical Service



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