Analytics 2016
Its just so happened

Its just so happened

2016 April 03 ( Friday )  09:19:22

The Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents were on the way home from Washington when they got the news on the fiercest clashes of their warring armies in the Karabakh front  over the term of their presidency.

These clashes, according to various assessments, resulted in the death of dozens of soldiers on both sides. The dynamics of the history of short-term military clashes shows the increased tension in the zone of the Karabakh conflict over the last 10 years, and especially after Azerbaijan started to grow, thanks to the fabulous profits from the sale of the Caspian oil.

All this time the militant rhetoric of President Ilham Aliyev was  strong based on the growing military power of the army and Azerbaijan's influence as a key communicative player in the Black Sea-Caspian region.

This trend was parallel to the descending line of the Armenian influence in the South Caucasus after the armistice with Azerbaijan in 1994. Pyrrhic victory of Armenia which annexed 20% of the territory of Azerbaijan opened the way for Baku to sign strategically important oil contract of the century, which became the basis for a protracted, but not vain struggle of Azerbaijan for the restoration of its borders.

Two important external players in the region, the United States and Russia, have influenced the development of the conflict along its entire length as till the truce, and after it. Despite the conflicts of interest both powers could find common ground, especially in the security sector of the economy. In this sense, the priority for the United States was energy and transport East-West corridor, and for Russia -  arms market and promising North-South corridor.

With the development of these influential projects that define the perspective picture of
The history of the conflict shows the acceleration of the military trend that more and more forms the policy of forcing for peace, mainly Armenia, over which dominates a Pyrrhic winner syndrome
the region, Azerbaijan’s influence is growing, and  Armenia’s which  is  on the sideline of  Caucasian communications, is  fallings.  This trend continues to move, and has especially intensified in the run-up to the launch of two strategic transport corridors, crossing Azerbaijan.

In this case, the Karabakh conflict is becoming a regional anachronistic, less used by foreign players to promote their interests in the region.

It’s just so happened that while the United States, represented by Vice-President Joe Biden at the nuclear summit in Washington expressed support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Russia prolonged the arms supplies to Azerbaijan, which is its main customer in the CIS.

It’s just so happened that the current military clash in Karabakh took place three weeks after the visit of the Russian vice-premier in charge of armament, Dmitry Rogozin to Baku, just as it was with downed Armenian helicopter on November 12, 2014, three weeks after the visit of the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Baku.

It just so happened that an artillery skirmish on the Karabakh direction took place a week before the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia in Baku, which will open a new milestone in the south-north transport corridor.

As the experience of previous battles shows, under the conditions of coinciding interests and the importance of regional communications, one should not expect the growth of permanent change of fighting to the constant.  Another thing is that the history of the conflict shows the acceleration of the military trend that more and more forms  the policy  of forcing for peace, mainly  Armenia, over which dominates a Pyrrhic winner syndrome.

Turan Analytical Service



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