Analytics 2014
The Azerbaijani Presidents Force Doctrine

The Azerbaijani Presidents Force Doctrine

2014 July 14 ( Thursday )  15:56:12

On July 9, two years later after the traditional meeting with his diplomatic corps, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, for the first time, openly declared his upgraded foreign policy doctrine of "Power is everything". Head of State clearly made ​​it clear that he is armed and guided by the doctrine of "the Force", which now, in his opinion, is dominant in the world and international relations.

His approach to the doctrine of "the Force" is ambiguous. In the first part of the presentation of his understanding of "force", Aliyev did not accept the "strength" of great powers against Azerbaijan, and in particular, in the Karabakh conflict and political situation; but in the second part of their public reasoning in this regard the President rejects this doctrine as an instrument of foreign and domestic policy of Azerbaijan. For the development of such a doctrine Aliyev relies on oil, through which the state has yet tangible advantages over its neighbors, first and foremost, a relatively hostile Armenia.

However, Azerbaijan's share in the global oil scenario is just over 1%, and its impact on the global economy is not significant, as is evidenced by the degree of equity in the oil cake, which is a measure of force.  The latest bleak trend of steady decline of Azerbaijani oil production (from 50 million tons in 2010 to 42 million tons in 2013) show that its value will decrease rapidly due to reduction of its  own reserves, and release to the  world markets mothballed reserves  of oil  powers. Experience  of the top ten developed countries shows that the basis of "Force"  of their economies  is not material, but political resources, such as democracy, rule of law, freedom of speech, political and economic pluralism, a free person and fair competition,  lack of monopoly, and  a strong middle class.

One of the directions to achieve "the Force" Aliyev outlines the policy of equidistance between the balance of powers, alliances - political, religious, and ethnic. According to Aliyev, "the Force" is hidden in the third world, the third way of development of "self-sufficient" path of development. What does the president imply under self-sufficiency? This political-economic concept particularly is used to their state status in Russia, a successor of the USSR. Even Putin understands what happened to the Soviet self-sufficient power, cut off from the world integration processes, what Russia is experiencing in the eternal search of its own path.

It should be noted that during his twelve-year reign  Ilham Aliyev  developed and strengthened the policy o
during his twelve-year reign Ilham Aliyev developed and strengthened the policy of equidistance of his father, Heydar Aliyev, by setting virtually nothing binding relationship with the EU, the OSCE, the Council of Europe, OIC, NAM, Commonwealth and others, and bilateral relations with large and small states.
f equidistance of  his father, Heydar Aliyev, by  setting virtually nothing binding relationship with the EU, the OSCE, the Council of Europe, OIC, NAM, Commonwealth and others,  and bilateral relations with large and small states.

But this equidistance, which provided stability of Aliyev’s personal power and strengthening the presidential vertical, did not solve the Karabakh conflict, did not raise the country's economic and social prosperity, did not free its citizens, and could not give them the rights and obligations that have given their citizens the former socialist countries and the Baltic republics, which uniquely follow the European development vector.

In his speech to the Azerbaijani diplomats president, as commander in chief, called the Armed Forces, the next important argument "Force." Aliyev once again boasted a growing combat power of the national army, ready, as he believes, by his order to win the war planned by generals. But the same experience of modern wars, of such self-sufficient countries as Azerbaijan, shows that the military “Force”, based on tactical weapons, and designed for warfare tactics operations even during the Second World War, is not an indication of "the Force."

Finally, another argument for self-sufficient "Force», according to the President Aliyev, is an import of Azerbaijani investments in overseas projects. It's not new know-how to developing countries, which on the one hand, borrows investments from international financial institutions and private companies, and on the other hand,  provides the export of capital  to non-transparent, for Azerbaijan,  foreign projects under the pretext of preventing overheating of the Azerbaijani economy  which is experiencing hard times. Foreign experience in key oil business does not show the best results. The question is what is advantage of the use of offshore activity structure, the state oil company - SOCAR trading, which by the end of 2013 with revenue of $ 30 billion transferred to the chief company of SOCAR less than a billion dollars?

But it is not a problem for the president, who noted in the end of his speech that "the power and self-sufficient" rate remains intact, at least until the next meeting of diplomats in 2016: "I ​​want to stress again Azerbaijan’s principled, consistent foreign policy. Azerbaijan will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy. Azerbaijan Diplomatic Corps works successfully. In general, I am satisfied with your work. There may be various errors, shortcomings, but, in general, the Azerbaijani diplomacy is undergoing a period of development. I wish you new success in the work. "

Turan Analytical Service



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